Authorities in Serbia are still thinking what to do in this new situation which emerged after war between Russia and Ukraine started. Shell we stay with totalitarian regimes like in Moscow and Peking where you fall out of window from 5th floor or disappear if you say something against authorities or on side of democracy, freedom and human rights or maybe try to maintain our unsustainable neutral position ?
Dilemma is big because authoritarian regimes are blocking part of our territory called Kosovo from joining UN and free world is asking us to recognize it's independence which would be seen like treason by many here.
A part from this political dilemma there is economic dilemma too because we are receiving gas and oil under good prices from Russia, while our main economic trade is with EU countries.
There is also ethic question about who is right and wrong in this war, are Ukrainians Nazis like Kremlin is saying or are Russians Mongol like barbarians who destroy anything in front of them.
People in Serbia are very against recognition of Kosovo, but I doubt there would be much protests if president recognize them. It might lead to losing next elections.
There is also fear element because some people in Serbia believe EU and USA are blackmailing Serbia and will not stop on Kosovo and will ask for more territory like south of Serbia, Sandzak and Vojvodina. American now passed away diplomat Richard Holbrooke said this after 2000 and democratic changes in Serbia:
I can't tell this loud enough to Serbians. Milosevic lost Kosovo, it's all over. Serbians should face choice Europe or Kosovo. If they chose Europe it's good they will lose only Kosovo and enter in EU, but if they chose Kosovo they will lose Kosovo and everything else and will not enter in EU.
I am inclined to believe that Joe Biden thinks similar to this. So if we chose Russia and Kosovo we are in danger of opening new problems in territory we are controlling now. Everything else is south Serbia, Sandzak, Vojvodina. Do we need new confrontation with NATO and free world ? Do we need new war we can't win ? Do we need more depleted Uranium ? No we don't. What if west give us sanctions similar to those in Russia ? How long can we survive that ?
Other part of fear element is what will Russia do if we chose west. Will they try to assassin president like politician Nenad Canak is saying ? There was one big good politician in 2000ies Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic who was pro western and end up killed by member of state security unit "Red Beret" and Zemun criminal clan. Political background of this murder was never revealed. Consequences were devastating we didn't solve problem of Kosovo at that time and our way into EU was more less stopped.
Remaining of our continent except Belarus are all against Russia, but they also depend on Russian gas so it's not clear who will win this at the end. With all that in mind I can understand why President's hair change color from black to white rapidly these days.
One ex American president George Bush said once "What must be done must be done" so my advice to President is to chose west and do what west wants. Reasons follow:
1.Russia attacked Ukraine and Ukraine is right in that conflict.
2. West can make more economic damage to our country than Russia.
3. West can make us more problems which can lead to losing more territories.
4. Kosovo is already lost in 1999 we don't control it in anyway and Albanians are more than 90% of population there.
5. Democratic, free world offers better life standard, human rights to your people and fast developing of your country.
6. Russia and China can't help you in anyway except with veto in UN Security Council, but west is controlling territory and can do whatever they want even outside UN like they did in 1999 with bombing of Yugoslavia.
7. Good relationship with Albanians on Kosovo and Albania are better than 100 year conflict.
All of this if you care for your country and people of course. If not then do what you want, but any other choice would be very wrong with unforeseeable consequences.
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